According to Kotak Equities, JLR revenues (excluding China JV) are likely to decline 16% YoY, driven by a 12% fall in volumes, despite a richer model mix supporting average selling prices (ASPs).
Reported JLR EBITDA margin is estimated to fall 680 basis points YoY to 9%, with the EBIT margin down to 3.2%, impacted by negative operating leverage, US tariffs, and adverse forex movements.
In the domestic business, Kotak projects a 6% YoY drop in standalone revenue, with EBITDA margins contracting due to commodity headwinds and increased marketing expenses, including IPL-linked promotions.
The PV EBITDA margin is estimated to decline 100 bps to 6.8%, while the CV segment is also expected to witness margin pressure.
Motilal Oswal forecasts a 10% YoY decline in India PV volumes and a 6% drop in CV volumes, with EBITDA margins in both segments contracting due to higher input costs and discounts.JLR’s margin is expected to slide 400 bps YoY to 11.8%, with weak regional demand and product realignment weighing on performance.YES Securities sees consolidated revenue falling 6.3% YoY to about Rs 1.01 lakh crore, while the EBITDA margin is likely to shrink 240 bps YoY to 12%. Adjusted PAT is estimated at Rs 5,730 crore, marking a 0.9% drop YoY and a sharper sequential decline of 36.9%.
With JLR accounting for a significant share of consolidated earnings, the company’s performance in this segment will be a key focus. Analysts will also watch for commentary on demand trends and margin resilience across JLR, India PV, and CV businesses.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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