While India’s imports of Russian oil declined by 24% on year in July, the drop in inward shipments by the Eurasian country was more pronounced among state-run refiners, while private-sector companies sought to keep the pace of imports.
Indian refiners now seem to be increasing their intake of US WTI crude and Middle Eastern barrels.
Analysts say the drop in imports reflect maintenance shutdowns, demand and heightened compliance sensitivity amid mounting geopolitical risk.
Private refiners, who account for over 50% of Russian crude intake, have also begun reducing exposure, with fresh procurement diversification underway as concerns over US sanctions intensify, notes Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler. By how much the two sets of companies have reduced the intake of Russian oil could not be immediately ascertained.
Indian refiners now seem to be increasing their intake of US WTI crude and Middle Eastern barrels.
India’s import of Russian oil had touched a two-year high of 2.1 million barrels per day in June, as per data provided by Kpler. The imports decreased by 23% from 2.09 million barrels per day in July 2024.
Private Refiners Also Begin to Diversify
Private refiners, who account for over 50% of Russian crude intake, have also begun reducing exposure, with fresh procurement diversification underway as concerns over US sanctions intensify, notes Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
As per the data, oil imports from Iraq rose by 8.7% to 908,000 barrels per day in July from the previous month while that from Saudi Arabia increased 21% to 702,000 barrels per day.
Volumes from the United States climbed 20% on-month to 364,000 barrels per day in July, touching an 11-month high, highlighting India’s ongoing diversification efforts and price-driven arbitrage.
In the weeks ahead, India’s complex private refiners are expected to pivot toward non-Russian barrels from the Middle East, West Africa, Latin America, or even the US, where economics permits, as per Kpler.
“This shift, while operationally feasible, will be gradual and strategically aligned with evolving regulatory frameworks, contract structures, and margin dynamics. Importantly, India’s ability to rebalance its crude slate without triggering a margin shock underscores the adaptability of its refining sector—but it also signals the beginning of a more fragmented and compliance-driven procurement environment,” Ritolia said.
Geopolitical Tensions and Cost Pressures Rising
US President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on India with additional penalties for buying Russian oil – a move could severely disrupt Indian supplies while also resulting in a potential increase in the country’s oil import bill as the country will lose its access to discounted barrels.
Experts say that it is unlikely that Indian refiners will voluntarily halt Russian crude imports in the absence of a clear government directive. Russian barrels—particularly Urals—offer a…
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