With US President Donald Trump doubling the tariff on Indian goods to 50 per cent, economists think India can afford to reduce its purchase of Russian oil due to the narrowing of the discount on offer and diversify its sourcing.
From around 2 per cent prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the share of Russian oil in India’s oil imports has increased sharply to 35-40 per cent, with Indian refiners lapping up discounted Russian oil that was shunned by developed nations. However, the tariff war instigated by Donald Trump – initially with a focus on addressing the US’ trade deficit with other nations – has seen the imposition of so-called secondary tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian energy and defence equipment. On July 30, Trump threatened a 25 per cent on India and an additional unspecified ‘penalty’ for its Russian trade. On Wednesday, the penalty was revealed to be a further 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods that will come into effect on August 27.
According to Barclays economists led by Aastha Gudwani, the purchase of discounted Russian oil helped lower India’s oil import bill by around $7 billion-10 billion in 2024 to $186 billion.
“As of now, the discount on oil imports from Russia having narrowed to around $3-8/barrel lower than Middle eastern grade. Media reports suggest that Indian refiners would be pushed to pivot towards traditional West Asian suppliers and new players such as Brazil to make up for lost Russian supplies, with price increases around $4-5/barrel. With global oil prices in 2025 so far settling around $9/barrel lower than 2024, such a diversification of oil supply sources is unlikely to hurt India’s oil import bill,” they added.
Meanwhile, Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi estimate the implied discount on Russian crude oil for Indian refiners declined to around $2.2 per barrel in 2024-25 from over $12 per barrel in 2022-23. As such, if India chooses to reduce its purchase of Russian oil, India’s annual import bill may only rise by around $1.5 billion, they calculated.
Morgan Stanley economists were in agreement, estimating that the discount India got on Russian crude oil in 2024-25 was only $2-3 per barrel.
Diversifications’ secondary impact
To be sure, Indian refining companies began cutting their purchase of Russian oil even prior to Trump’s threat of a ‘penalty’. In July, India’s crude imports from Russia averaged 1.6 million barrels per day, as per data from Kpler, a global trade data and analytics firm, down 24 per cent from June.
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However, a move by India to procure more oil from countries other than Russia could push up prices globally, which would raise the import bill. While difficult to estimate, Nomura economists think that given India imported 1.8 billion barrels of oil in 2024-25, India’s annual import bill could rise by around $1.8 billion for every $1 increase in global crude prices.
“Domestically, the government will likely keep…
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